Evaluating the effect of urban expansion forest cover degradation: A case study of Rubavu city, Rwanda

Abstract

This study investigates the impacts of urban expansion on forest cover in Rubavu City from 2000 to 2020 and proposes evidence-based mitigation strategies to address the resulting environmental challenges. Using remote sensing data and land cover analysis, the research employed a spatiotemporal approach to assess changes in forested and non-forested areas over two decades. The analysis revealed a significant decline in forest cover, with forested areas decreasing from 20.17 sq.km (41.51%) in 2000 to 9.66 km2 (19.88%) by 2020. Concurrently, non-forested areas expanded from 28.42 km2 (58.49%) to 38.93 km2 (80.12%) during the same period. The reduction in forest cover was accompanied by a notable decline in the value of ecosystem services, including erosion control and climate regulation. The total ecosystem services value decreased from USD 19,901.54 per hectare in 2000 to USD 9,531.43 per hectare by 2020. Interviews with local officials corroborated these findings, highlighting increased urban temperatures and heightened risks of landslides and floods as direct consequences of deforestation. Based on these findings, the study recommends implementing comprehensive land use planning, promoting reforestation efforts, and enhancing urban green spaces. These measures aim to balance development with environmental sustainability, mitigate the adverse effects of deforestation, and restore the ecological and economic benefits of forest ecosystems in Rubavu City. Future research should focus on long-term monitoring of forest dynamics and ecosystem service changes to guide sustainable urban development. The integration of advanced remote sensing technologies and ground-based surveys will be crucial in assessing ongoing impacts and informing effective management strategies.