Assessing the potential use of shared electric bicycles for the last mile trips. Case of Kigali, Rwanda

Abstract

This study evaluates the potential of shared electric bicycles (e-bikes) for last-mile connectivity in Kigali, Rwanda, analyzing user preferences, current transport modes, and adoption barriers across different travel distances. Using a mixed-methods approach, including descriptive statistics and non-parametric tests (Mann-Whitney U), primary data was collected from 170 respondents representing diverse socio-demographic groups. The sample was predominantly young (55.3% aged 25–34), educated (94.7% with tertiary education), and employed (50%), reflecting Kigali’s urban commuter profile. Results indicate that walking (55.9%) remains the dominant mode for short distances (<1 km), while moto-taxis (28.2%) are costly yet widely used. Bicycle adoption is low (9.4%) but viable for medium distances (2–5 km). Non-parametric tests reveal significant predictors of e-bike willingness: for travel distance <1 km, occupation (p = 0.014) and trip cost (p = 0.021) are key; for 1–3 km, income (p = 0.028) and trip purpose (p = 0.039) matter most; Furthermore, a binary logistic regression model confirmed that increased distance from a public transport station is the strongest positive predictor of willingness to adopt e-bikes (OR = 1.57, p = .001), while older age is a significant negative predictor (OR = 0.66, p < .001). The model was statistically significant (χ²(5) = 25.92, p < .001) and a good fit for the data (H-L test p = .051) and for 3–5 km, district of residence (p = 0.049) and public transport use (p= 0.014) are influential. Notably, no significant factors emerged for trips >5 km, underscoring e-bikes’ limited appeal for longer distances. Younger respondents (18–34 years) and suburban residents showed higher willingness, while affordability and infrastructure gaps persisted as barriers. The study concludes that e-bikes can effectively bridge last-mile gaps for 1–5 km trips, particularly in underserved suburban areas, but require targeted interventions: dedicated cycling lanes, integrated e bikes stations and parking at transit hubs, and subsidies for lowincome users as critical enablers. This research provides evidence-based guidance for policymakers to promote e-bikes as a sustainable, cost-effective alternative to current modes, aiming to enhance urban mobility, and improve environmental outcomes.