Climate trends and farmers’ perceptions in the Eastern Province of Rwanda

Abstract

This dissertation presents a comprehensive assessment of climate trends and farmers’ perceptions in Rwanda’s Eastern Province by analyzing meteorological data from 1981 to 2021 alongside local knowledge gathered from farmer surveys. Employing robust statistical methods, the study investigates spatial and temporal variations in precipitation and temperature, characterizes drought dynamics, and examines smallholder farmers’ awareness and adaptation strategies in response to ongoing climatic changes. Analyses of precipitation trends across 56 meteorological stations reveal a complex seasonal variability. During the March–May (MAM) season, 39 stations recorded declining rainfall trends, with eight stations in the southern part showing statistically significant decreases. Conversely, in the September–December (SOND) season, 31 stations exhibited declining rainfall, but with only one significant station, while increasing rainfall trends were observed at 25 stations in SOND, with one significant. Regionally, MAM rainfall trends showed a non-significant decrease, whereas SOND demonstrated a slight but non-significant increase. Notably, season duration expanded in SOND across 43 stations, attributed primarily to earlier onset dates, which showed significant decreasing trends at 41 stations. The timing of trend change points generally clustered between 2000 and 2020, coinciding with critical shifts in regional agroclimatic conditions that have influenced cropping practices and heightened crop failure risks. Concurrently, temperature trend analysis highlights substantial warming, especially in minimum and mean temperatures. The annual minimum temperature increased significantly by 2.95 °C (95% CI: 1.64–4.45 °C), with the June–August season showing the greatest rise of 3.37 °C (1.75–4.81 °C). Mean temperature rose by 1.87 °C regionally (0.61–3.19 °C), while maximum temperature changes were not statistically significant. Temporal trends exhibited non-linear behavior, with a plateau in warming from 1990 to 2010, followed by accelerated increases post-2010. Among the identified climatic zones, Northwestern, Central, and Southeastern, the Northwestern zone experienced the most pronounced temperature rise, particularly in seasonal minimum temperatures, underscoring its heightened vulnerability to climate-related stressors. Drought analyses vi reveal an intensification of frequency, duration, and severity since 2010, with geographic variability intimating complex underlying environmental drivers. The Central zone exhibited the highest drought frequency, whereas the Northwestern and Southeastern zones displayed distinct patterns of short- and long-term drought extremes. Complementing the climatic assessment, a socio-environmental inquiry involving 204 farmers across five districts of the Eastern Province examined perceptions, indigenous knowledge, and adaptive responses. The majority (85%) acknowledged the reality of climate change, with over half observing rising temperatures (54%) and nearly 40% noting decreased rainfall. These perceptions are closely aligned with observed meteorological data, reinforcing the reliability of local knowledge systems. Farmers attributed climate change primarily to deforestation, linking it to adverse outcomes such as crop failures, yield reduction, and food shortages. Adaptation strategies employed were diverse, including agroforestry, crop varietal changes, and fertilizer use; however, financial constraints, lack of access to information, and limited availability of inputs present major obstacles to widespread adoption. Importantly, indigenous forecasting methods based on meteorological indicators remain a vital resource for many, enhancing decision-making despite limited formal education among respondents. This integrated analysis elucidates the multifaceted nature of climate change impacts in Eastern Rwanda, revealing significant shifts in climate drivers alongside tangible effects on vulnerable farming communities. The findings emphasize the importance of incorporating localized indigenous knowledge into adaptation planning and underscore the need for supportive policies that address both environmental changes and socioeconomic barriers. Together, these results provide an essential foundation for developing targeted resilience-building initiatives that foster sustainable agricultural practices and improve livelihoods amid evolving climatic challenges.