Assessing the impact of climate variability on coffee production in Rwanda 2001-2015

Abstract

Worldwide, climate change and variability have been raising concerns about potential changes to crop yields and production systems. The focus of the present study was to assess the impact of climate variability on coffee production in Rwanda. Climate variables, like rainfall and temperature and coffee production data over the past fifteen years i.e. a period between 2001 and 2015 were used to investigate the evidence of climate variability in Rwanda, changes in coffee production in Rwanda and the likelihood of relationship between agricultural production of coffee and these climatic variables. Four coffee washing stations were selected from coffee growing regions namely, RWACOF in Karenge sector of Rwamagana District, Musasa CWS in Ruli sector located in Gakenke District, KOPAKAKI in Rubengera, Karongi District and IWACU in Nyagisozi sector of Nyanza District. The Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) was used to analyze the relationship between climate variability and the changes in coffee production in study areas. Specifically, correlation analysis was used to determine the relationship of temperature and rainfall variability and coffee production in the focus area. Both climate variables (temperature and rainfall) and coffee production showed an increasing and decreasing trends. The results of the correlation analysis between coffee production and climate variable show a weak temperature – coffee production correlation in all Districts while significant correlation was found in between coffee production and rainfall. Given the weak correlation between temperature and coffee production it can be concluded that coffee yield was not much influenced by both temperature and rainfall taken altogether, but there might be other factors such as soil type, topography and elevation, socio-economic factors that can be the cause of shortage of agricultural inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides and these are likely to influence coffee production in the study area as well. It is of capital importance to research also on these factors and the likely impact this situation (climate variability and climate change) will put on coffee production and national economy in the future by exploring different scenarios. .