Block maxima approach to study extreme Rainfall in Kigali

Abstract

Extreme rainfall is one of the most devastating natural events. The frequency and intensity of these events has increased. This trend will likely continue as the effects of climate change become more pronounced. As a consequence, it is necessary to evaluate the different statistical methods that assess the occurrence of the extreme rainfalls. This research evaluates some of the most important statistical method that is used for the analysis of the extreme precipitation events. Extreme Value Theory is applied on one station (Kanombe station) data located in Kigali. Furthermore, The Methodology of BMA (Block Maxima Approach) was applied to model monthly rainfall and LMoment is used as a method of calculation of the extreme distribution parameters. The model Quantile plot and return revel plot will be used to test the goodness of the model. The results showed that the Generalized Extreme Value distribution provides better theoretical justification to evaluate extreme precipitatio