Evaluating the effects of climate change on drought trends in Bugesera district, eastern province of Rwanda

Abstract

This study evaluates the effects of climate change on drought trends in Bugesera District, Eastern Province of Rwanda, utilizing the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) as a comprehensive tool for assessing drought conditions. The research analyzes historical climate data, including temperature and precipitation records, to calculate the SPEI over multiple time scales, reflecting seasonal and interannual variations in drought severity and frequency. Our findings indicate a significant increase in drought intensity and duration in Bugesera over the past few decades, correlating with rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns attributed to climate change. The analysis reveals that prolonged dry spells have intensified, affecting agricultural productivity, water resources, and local livelihoods. The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) site's monthly rainfall datasets from 1980 to 2100 from CORDEX-Africa-22 Domain and the monthly gridded rainfall dataset known as ENACTS dataset for a 35-year period (1985 to 2020) will be utilized. In order to assess the historical drought across the Eastern Province of Rwanda,Bugesera District based on the four stations. Based on the verified models' CORDEX-Africa-22 projection on the two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, future drought aspects will be examined. Finally, to understand changes. Based on historical data, it was found that Ruhuha and Nyamata experienced drought-free periods in 17 of the 35 years, Karama and Juru stations had drought-free periods in 22 of the 35 years from 1985 to 2020. All four regions with mild to extreme droughts had drier conditions in 2017, the year with the worst drought on record. These trends underscore the need for adaptive strategies to mitigate the impacts of drought in the region, including improved water management practices and climate-resilient agricultural techniques. The study contributes to the understanding of climate change impacts on drought dynamics in Bugesera District and provides a framework for future research and policy.