The study on an optimum development of green and least cost generation expansion plan in Rwanda

Abstract

One of the sources of CO2 that contributes to climate change is the power generation industry. Diesel is gradually running out because it is getting more and more expensive over time. Although electric vehicles were developed to solve this problem, there is a possibility that this will lead to a significant increase in electricity consumption in the near future. In mitigating these issues, the study developed a green least cost generation expansion plan (GLCGEP) as a substitute of the least-cost power development plan (LCPDP) for Rwanda that was developed by REG in 2020. The study's objectives were to identify the best GLCGEP based on the green candidate plants, find the national peak demand estimate for 2038, and establish a comparative analysis between the GLCGEP and LCPDP. The electricity generation cost optimization was used for selecting the green candidate plants. Quadratic regression trend mathematical model was formulated to predict the demand forecast. With data collection from EUCL, the existing and committed plants were identified. The Generation analysis planning (GAP) tool was used to simulate the chosen green candidate plants, the demand projection, the committed and existing plants, and the best GLCGEP was determined. In 2022 the national peak was 201.4 MW, by 2038 the peak was predicted to reach 750.1MW. The 42MW hydropower, 24MW peat, 30MW methane gas and 12 MW solar was determined as the optimal green candidate plants. The long run marginal cost for the electrical energy added on the system was 0.16$/kWh as the base price. The energy supply mix has risen from 1995.1 GWh in 2023 to 5006.2 GWh in 2038. The significant increase in energy will occur in 2038 with an increment of 404.6 GWh