Assessment and prediction of spatio-temporal Land use/Land cover changes in mining areas. A case of Miyove Gold Mining Area, Rwanda

Abstract

Land use and land cover (LULC) serve as vital indicators of global environmental change, reflecting the profound impact of human activities on the physical landscape. This study examines into the spatial and temporal dynamics of LULC in the Miyove gold mining area spanning from 2000 to 2021, with projections extended to 2050. Employing a robust methodology, including the utilization of historical Landsat imagery from 2000, 2010, and 2021, ground control points, and predictive variables such as Digital Elevation Model (DEM), slope, distance to roads and distance to mining areas, alongside statistical analysis, and geospatial modeling techniques, such as Markov Chain analysis, facilitated the forecasting of future LULC scenarios. The results show that over the period between 2000 and 2021, we noticed that while mining area expanded, there were also increases in forest cover and artificial surfaces. However, by 2021, there was a noticeable reversal in trends, with Forest cover decreasing and Artificial Surfaces expanding further. This shift indicates a possible trade-off between natural habitats and urbanization, with mining activities serving as a key player in land transformation processes. Looking ahead to 2050, Markov chain analysis suggests a continued expansion of mining area to 89.79 ha in 2050 from 18.8 ha in 2000 which is translated as 416% increase. That pressure is coupled by the decrease of 25% in non-forest vegetation cover and 13% in forest cover highlighting the mining influence on landscape dynamics. This study provides valuable insights into the complex dynamics of LULC, highlighting the imperative for interdisciplinary approaches to address environmental challenges associated with land use conversions, particularly in mining regions. Such comprehensive strategies are essential for ensuring the long-term ecological integrity and resilience of landscapes in the face of ongoing human-induced alterations.