Evaluation of land use and land cover changes in road reserves and their impact on road vulnerability to climate change hazard

Abstract

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes are among the most critical indicators of environmental transformation, reflecting the extent of human influence on the physical landscape. Rapid population growth, urbanization, and intensified anthropogenic activities have significantly altered natural ecosystems, leading to increased environmental degradation and vulnerability to climate related hazards. In Rwanda, the accelerating pace of development particularly in infrastructure and urban expansion has contributed to substantial modifications within road reserves, thereby influencing road performance and resilience. This study evaluates the patterns of land use and land cover changes in road reserves and examines their impacts on road vulnerability to climate change hazards. Using a multidisciplinary approach that integrates remote sensing, GIS-based spatial-temporal analysis, and environmental assessment techniques, the research investigates how LULC dynamics within designated road buffer zones (15–22 meters from the road centerline) contribute to increased susceptibility of roads to hazards such as flooding, landslides, and soil erosion. Findings reveal that conversion of natural vegetation and agricultural land into built-up areas and other impervious surfaces within road reserves has disrupted natural drainage systems, weakened slope stability, and increased the exposure of road infrastructure to climate induced risks. These transformations have been most pronounced in rapidly urbanizing and highland regions of Rwanda, where rainfall intensity and terrain characteristics exacerbate the problem. The study highlights a critical gap in current infrastructure and land management practices, where limited integration of LULC monitoring and climate adaptation measures undermines road sustainability. It recommends strengthening spatial planning frameworks, enforcing road reserve management regulations, and adopting environmentally sound land use practices to enhance road resilience. Overall, this research contributes to the growing body of knowledge on the interaction between land use dynamics, environmental change, and infrastructure vulnerability, offering evidence based insights to guide policymakers, planners, and engineers in developing adaptive and sustainable road systems in the context of climate change.