Assessing trends and variability of temperature and rainfall and their impacts on beans production in southern province Rwanda

Abstract

Climate change has a significant impact on the agricultural sector in Rwanda. This study assesses the trends and variability of temperature and rainfall over the past decade and their impacts on bean production in the Southern Province of Rwanda from 2013 to 2021. The analysis includes maximum and minimum temperatures (Maximum Temperature (Tmax), Minimum Temperature (Tmin)), rainfall, their variability (Coefficient of Variation (CV)), and their relationship with bean yields. The monthly and seasonal analyses are conducted using data from Meteo Rwanda National Institute of Statistics (Rwanda National Institute of Statistics (NISR)), and applying tools like the Mann-Kendall trend test, regression anal ysis, and correlation metrics. The findings show that climate variability, particularly de clining rainfall, increasing Tmin, and seasonal unpredictability, has significantly impacted bean production. These effects vary spatially, underscoring the necessity for localized adaptation strategies and improved agricultural support systems. These findings provide a strong basis for supporting farmers with timely climate information and encouraging the use of resilient crop varieties to enhance food security in the region. Implementing these recommendations can improve the adaptive capacity of farmers, support food security, and foster a more resilient agriculture sector in the face of ongoing climate change.