Abstract:
Climate change has a significant impact on the agricultural sector in Rwanda. This study
assesses the trends and variability of temperature and rainfall over the past decade and their
impacts on bean production in the Southern Province of Rwanda from 2013 to 2021. The
analysis includes maximum and minimum temperatures (Maximum Temperature (Tmax),
Minimum Temperature (Tmin)), rainfall, their variability (Coefficient of Variation (CV)),
and their relationship with bean yields. The monthly and seasonal analyses are conducted
using data from Meteo Rwanda National Institute of Statistics (Rwanda National Institute
of Statistics (NISR)), and applying tools like the Mann-Kendall trend test, regression anal ysis, and correlation metrics. The findings show that climate variability, particularly de clining rainfall, increasing Tmin, and seasonal unpredictability, has significantly impacted
bean production. These effects vary spatially, underscoring the necessity for localized
adaptation strategies and improved agricultural support systems. These findings provide a
strong basis for supporting farmers with timely climate information and encouraging the
use of resilient crop varieties to enhance food security in the region. Implementing these
recommendations can improve the adaptive capacity of farmers, support food security, and
foster a more resilient agriculture sector in the face of ongoing climate change.
