Abstract:
The transportation sector in Rwanda remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, contributing to high energy import costs and greenhouse-gas emissions. To align with the national goals of sustainable development and the Vision 2050 framework, this study analyzes the economic and environmental implications of adopting electric vehicles (EVs) in Rwanda’s public transport sector. A quantitative, analytical research design was employed, integrating secondary data from national and international sources. The Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED-2) was used to project energy demand and assess the economic outcomes of different EV-adoption scenarios for the period 2020–2050.
The results indicate that under the EV-adoption scenario, transport energy demand could decline by approximately 18% compared to the baseline, while electricity demand is expected to increase by nearly 40 times. The findings further suggest potential annual savings of about USD 140 million in fuel imports by 2050, alongside a projected 18% reduction in CO₂ emissions. These outcomes highlight both economic and environmental benefits associated with the transition to e-mobility.
The study concludes that large-scale EV adoption is feasible and beneficial for Rwanda if supported by policies promoting renewable-energy generation, local EV assembly, and nationwide charging infrastructure. The findings provide evidence-based insights to guide policymakers in accelerating Rwanda’s transition toward sustainable, low-carbon transport systems.
