Adaptation to Climate Variability in the Agriculture Sector in Rwanda. Case study of Bugesera district

Abstract

Rwanda is a hilly country of more than 90% of population relying on agriculture. The land is very scarce with an average of 0.3Ha per household. Due to land scarcity coupled with high rate of population growth the land is highly overexploited. Overexploitation together with temperature increase, shift of seasons and low rainfall in drought risk zone of Bugesera accelerates the severity of agriculture vulnerability to climate variability. All of these issues have inspired me to assess the level of adaptation to these changes to attain agriculture sustainability. The main objective of this research was to assess the adaptation to climate variability in Agriculture Sector in Rwanda, especially in Bugesera. Exposure and sensitivity of grain legumes’ yields to climate variability and ability of farmers to adapt to the effects of exposure and sensitivity of grain legumes to climate impacts have been selected as main indicators for this research. To achieve this, cluster area sampling and random sampling were used to select 99 households surveyed using a structured questionnaire. With intention of clarifying some aspects not captured in the survey, interview was organized with local authorities in charge of agriculture and social affairs at both sector and district levels. MAKESENS model and Analysis of Variances (ANOVA) have been used to analyze climate data and information got from household survey. This research revealed significant increase of mean temperature (0.390C and 0.460C per decade for rainy seasons A and B respectively) and irregularity of rainfalls during both rainy seasons. Diurnal Temperature Range is decreasing considerably which can impact on plant development like decrease in internode length, as well as the small decrease in height, stem thickness and leaf area could add up to a large decrease in photosynthetic area. Also the analysis of minimum and maximum temperatures dynamics per decade from 1970s indicates that so far they provide an acceptable temperature threshold for beans development but they are not optimum for peas and soybeans. Consequently, the yield of grain legumes in Bugesera is much sensitive to climate variability because the small farmers of Bugesera do not have enough capacity of adaptation to climate change/variability due to insufficient awareness and commitment to climate variability mitigations, inefficiency of irrigation tools/equipments, traditional and subsistence agriculture, poverty, little access to information on climate change/variability, miss-believing in climate change/variability (68.7% do not believe on climate information got from any source) as well as the inefficiency of climate information communication. For a better mitigation of climate change/variability impacts, land consolidation and forming cooperatives, improving economic capacity of local farmers, cultivating seeds that are resilient to climate variability and if possible start other off-farm activities, improving climate information reliability and dissemination as well as continuous researches should be paid greater attention.