Statistical inference of tangency portfolio in small and large dimension

Abstract

This thesis considers statistical test theory in portfolio theory. It analyses the asymptotic behavior of the considered tests in the high-dimensional setting, meaning k/n → c ∈ (0, ∞) as n → ∞, where k and n are portfolio size and sample size, respectively. It also considers the high-dimensional asymptotic of the product of components involved in the computation of the optimal portfolio. The thesis comprises four manuscripts: Paper I is concerned with the test on the location of the tangency portfolio on the set of feasible portfolios. Considering the independent and normally multivariate asset returns, we propose a finite-sample test on the mean-variance efficiency of the tangency portfolio (TP). We derive the distribution of the proposed test statistic under both the null and alternative hypotheses, using which we assess the power of the test and construct a confidence interval. The out-of-sample performance of the portfolio determined by the proposed test is conducted and through an extensive simulation study, we show the robustness of the developed test towards the violation of the normality assumptions. We also apply the developed test to real data in the empirical study. Paper II extends the results of paper I. It is concerned with the study of the asymptotic distributions of the test on the existence of efficient frontier (EF) and the efficiency of the tangency portfolio in the mean-variance space in the highdimension setting under both the null and alternative hypotheses. Finite-sample performance and robustness of the proposed tests are studied through an extensive simulation study. In paper III, we study the distributional properties of the TP weights under the assumption of normally distributed logarithmic returns. The distribution of the weights of the TP is given under the form of a stochastic representation (SR). Using the derived SR we deliver the asymptotic distribution of the TP weights under a high-dimensional asymptotic regime. Besides, we consider tests about the elements of the TP weights and derive the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under the null and alternative hypotheses. In a simulation study, we compare the power function of the high-dimensional asymptotic and the exact tests. Moreover, in an empirical study, we apply the developed theory in analysing the TP weights in a portfolio made of stocks from the S&P 500 index. In paper IV, we derive a stochastic representation of the product of a singular Wishart matrix and a singular Gaussian vector. We then use the derived SR in the obtention of the characteristic function of that product and in proving the asymptotic normality under the double asymptotic regime. The performance of the obtained asymptotic is shown in the simulation study. Keywords: Tangency portfolio, Mean-variance portfolio, High-dimensional asymptotics, Test theory.