Prediction of tourism revenues in Rwanda: A case study of volcano and Nyungwe National Parks

Abstract

Rwanda’s Tourism and Travel sector has been growing steadily at an annual rate of 9.6% between 1999 and 2018, with its significant contribution to GDP. The sector is indeed the single most contributor to the country’s GDP. Its salience in national development creates the need to predict its future trend to guide policies and strategies for its promotion. Knowledge concerning future tourism revenues is crucial in guiding planning and policy making. However, it was found that few studies have been done about tourism revenues forecasts for Rwanda. The purpose of this study was to analyze trends and patterns of tourism revenue from Volcano and Volcanoes National Parks for the years 2013-2019 and make future predictions for the next 18 months. This research used the Box–Jenkins technique to model and forecast tourism revenues. The results revealed that revenues exhibited a positive trend between 2013 and 2019, with some seasonal fluctuations. It is predicted that revenues will continue on a positive trajectory for the next 18 months until June 2021. The findings reiterate the importance of the tourism sector and the need for concerted efforts to maintain its high and growing performance. The proper management, funding and marketing of tourist sites like Nyungwe and Volcanoes National Parks will help owners of tourism-related businesses to allocate resources, prioritize marketing, advertising and devise overall strategies for the continued growth of tourism arrivals and revenues