Spatial analysis of road traffic crashes involving vulnerable road users in Musanze city”

Abstract

Road traffic injuries remain a leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally, particularly in low- and middle-income countries where urban planning and road infrastructure often fail to accommodate vulnerable road users (VRUs), including pedestrians, cyclists, and motorcyclists. This study aimed to spatially analyze road traffic crashes involving VRUs in Musanze City, Rwanda, with a focus on identifying high-risk locations, assessing the influence of road parameters, and examining road safety issues from the perspective of road users. Using crash data from the Rwanda National Police (2021–2024), the study employed Geographic Information System (GIS) tools Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) and GetisOrd Gi* hotspot analysis to map spatial patterns and detect statistically significant clusters of crashes. Additional statistical analyses, including chi-square tests and multiple linear regression, were used to explore the relationship between road parameters, crash involvement, and user perceptions based on a structured survey of 398 VRUs. The spatial analysis revealed that crashes are non-randomly distributed and tend to cluster around major intersections and high-traffic corridors, particularly at Kalisimbi, BNR intersection, and along the Musanze–Rubavu and Musanze–Kinigi Roads. Road design factors such as intersection type, road curvature, and gradient were found to significantly influence crash risk, especially for cyclists and motorcyclists. Survey results further highlighted that speeding (72.1%), poor pedestrian paths (66.3%), and reckless driving (61.8%) are the most commonly reported safety concerns. Younger adults (18–35 years) and frequent road users were more likely to be involved in crashes, particularly during afternoon and evening hours. The findings underscore the need for integrated, evidence-based interventions combining infrastructure upgrades, traffic enforcement, and public education to enhance protection for VRUs in urban Rwanda.