Predicting global atmospheric carbon dioxide concetration dynamics: A time-integrated mathematical modelling approach

Abstract

The rise in the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is a serious problem that has an impact on the environment and the world’s climate. Effective mitigation measures require accurate future CO2 level predictions and an understanding of the processes causing this increase. Our thesis introduces an enhanced mathematical model of the average global concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, based on human emissions. We accomplish so by measuring the behavior of carbon dioxide released into and withdrawn from the atmosphere using a straightforward ordinary differential equation. Wecalculatebest-fitcurvestoestimatetheamountofanthropogenic CO2 emissionsintheatmosphere. In order to determine a model approximation, we estimate the model parameters using the least squares method. We evaluate the model’s solution and talk about how fit the model is. The model shows that the constant rise in anthropogenic emissions is what is responsible for the boundary-less increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere will steadily rise if CO2 emission is not controlled, with increasingly dire consequences