Analysis of the impact of climate variability on health in Rwanda. Case study: Gatsibo district

Abstract

Malaria is an illness caused by protozoan parasites belonging to the genus Plasmodium, heavily influenced by climate and transmitted by Anopheles mosquitoes. Meteorological factors play a critical part in malaria morbidity by directly or indirectly affecting both the parasites and their vectors. Variations in temperature, rainfall, and humidity are linked to changes in malaria vector populations and, consequently, the disease's spread. This study aimed to discover the connection amongst climatic variability besides malaria morbidity in the Gatsibo region of Rwanda and to offer recommendations. To achieve this, I have used Spearman's correlation analysis and timeseries analysis, drawing on data regarding climatic variables and malaria morbidity in Gatsibo from 2014 to 2023. The analysis using Spearman's correlation revealed that the monthly Tav, RH and rainfall are related by the monthly malaria morbidity within the research area. The research showed that monthly mean temperature is the most meteorological variable to correlate with malaria morbidity with correlation, r=0.032256 followed by relative humidity with correlation, r=0.3028 and the rainfall with correlation, r=0.01693, where the months with high mean temperature above 23o (T≥23o) corresponds to high peak of malaria morbidity in study area and the months with relative humidity above 60% (RH≥60%) corresponds to the high peak of malaria morbidity in study period of 2014-2023.