Predicting the future vegetation cover in response to climate change in Rwanda

Abstract

Climate change, one of the global main threats brings about environmental fluctuations including the vegetation cover change in an area. This study concerns the response of vegetation cover to climate change in Rwanda for the period of 2024 to 2053. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used to monitor the vegetation cover status in terms of the temperature and rainfall in Rwanda. MPI-REMO inputted by two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 was used to predict the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in 2024-2053. The results showed that the annual change in rainfall from 1983 to 2020 was approximately 0.7𝑚𝑚 and the mean temperature was approximately 0.2°𝐶. The grasslands as well as the shrubs governed many regions in the study area from 1983 to 2020 and NDVI will increase from the North to South and from East to West of the study area under the scenarios in consideration during the 2024 -2053 period. The NDVI will increase with the slope of 0.0009𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟−1and 0.0002𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟−1at the high emission and low emission respectively during the 2043-2053 period. The correlation of NDVI to either rainfall or mean temperature was unequally distributed in the study area with a low positive or negative coefficient of correlation. However, the NDVI was more correlated to mean temperature than rainfall in different regions of the study area during the 1983- 2020 period. This will be the same under the two scenarios in consideration during the 2024-2053 period. To implement the conservation strategies of a green environment in Rwanda, one should take into account the factors enhancing climate change such as the greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere training without ceasing the mitigation measures.